Player analysis: Gabriel Martinelli
Gabriel Martinelli quickly became a fan favorite at Arsenal, with even Jürgen Klopp publicly praising his talents early in his Premier League career. This initial success saw him widely regarded as one of the most exciting young prospects in European football. His early performances showed not only his flair and direct play but also his potential to become a world-class winger. However, as time passed, questions arose about his ability to consistently deliver at the top level. Despite the glowing early reviews, including being hailed as the next big thing, Martinelli’s progress seemed to stall. His early meteoric rise, particularly in the 2019-2020 season, may have set expectations that have been difficult for him to consistently meet in the seasons that followed.
Twelve GPT (2019/2020):
Gabriel Martinelli Silva is an exciting, young winger known for his exceptional finishing ability, particularly his shot conversion rate. This season, Martinelli has consistently impressed with his run quality and box threat, frequently getting into the box and scoring goals, while performing high-intensity pressing. He is a capable dribbler but this is not as notable as his other skills. However, Martinelli falls short in involvement, effectiveness, and providing for teammates, especially struggling with passing quality. Despite these weaknesses, Martinelli's excellent finishing and ability to make threatening runs make him a promising talent who is still developing.
Challenges in recent seasons
Since Martinelli’s breakthrough, his form has fluctuated, with particular concerns about his effectiveness in recent seasons. His influence on games has diminished compared to his earlier performances, and his role in the team has been questioned. Specifically, the previous season and the start of the current one have not seen him replicate the goal-scoring or assist-making form that made him a standout player. There is a growing debate among fans and analysts regarding whether Arsenal’s tactical system is limiting Martinelli’s potential, or if he is struggling to finish chances as efficiently as before. This has led to speculation that his standout season might have been a one-off, and his ability to consistently reach the next level remains uncertain.
Twelve GPT:
Gabriel Martinelli struggles as a poacher, often failing to convert his penalty area touches into quality scoring opportunities. Although he is average in some metrics, his poor xG per penalty area touch highlights his difficulties in making the most of his chances.
Injury setbacks and playing time
Martinelli’s career progression has also been impacted by injuries, which have limited his playing time and momentum. A significant injury in 2020 sidelined him for months, and even after returning, he has struggled to regain consistent form. This lack of game time, particularly during key periods when Arsenal has built attacking momentum, has affected his development. Last season, he missed several crucial matches and played limited minutes, with Leandro Trossard taking over the left-wing role in many games. The lack of continuous 90-minute performances has meant that his stats per match look less impressive, and there are long stretches where he has gone without goals or assists.
Statistical decline in productivity
One of the most notable concerns surrounding Martinelli is the decline in his key attacking statistics. For example, from March of last year until recently. Over the course of 13-17 matches, his expected goal contributions have decreased, and his ability to make an impact from the left wing has waned. For a player who was once known for his directness and ability to create and score, this represents a significant drop-off. His xA (expected assists) and xG (expected goals) metrics have declined, which has fueled discussions about his future at the club and his role in the current setup.
Twelve GPT:
Starting at Arsenal at just 18, Martinelli has shown consistent yet average goal-scoring ability as a winger in the Premier League. His poaching has varied, but overall remains average. Over the next three years, his goal-scoring is not expected to improve much, staying between poor and good.
Tactical misfit at Arsenal
A key theme in the conversation around Martinelli is whether he fits into Arsenal’s current tactical system. The team’s structure seems to favor the right-hand side, where Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard, and Ben White have developed strong partnerships. On the left, Martinelli has not enjoyed the same level of support or creative freedom. While his dribbling and pace are useful assets, his technical ability in one-on-one situations has been questioned, particularly when compared to players like Saka. Arsenal’s focus on ball control and measured build-up play doesn’t always suit Martinelli’s strengths, which are based more on direct running and counter-attacking football. This has raised the question of whether Arsenal has outgrown Martinelli’s skill set.
Three examples from the previous season:
Twelve GPT:
Arsenal's attack was fairly balanced during their win over Burnley, with typical expected goals created across most zones. However, they were notably more dangerous when attacking from the right wing, which likely contributed to their three-goal tally.
Twelve GPT:
Against Sheffield United, Arsenal were devastatingly efficient when attacking from the right wing. They scored five goals in the match, highlighting their capability to convert chances even though they operated typically in other attacking zones.
Twelve GPT:
In the match against Bournemouth, Arsenal were particularly dangerous when attacking from the right channel and the left side of the box. They also saw some success from the right wing, contributing to their dominant performance and three-goal victory.
Despite his recent struggles, Martinelli still possesses qualities that could make him a valuable asset, particularly in specific match situations. His pace and ability to stretch defenses are unmatched at Arsenal, and in games where the team adopts a more direct approach, he has the potential to be a game-changer. However, there is a growing sentiment that Martinelli may be better suited to a team that plays a more aggressive, counter-attacking style, similar to Klopp’s Liverpool. Arsenal’s shift towards a more possession-based game may be limiting his effectiveness, and some argue that it might be in both the player’s and the club’s best interest to part ways. His market value remains high, and a move could unlock his full potential in a different system.
